Agenda item

Presentation on evidence base stakeholder consultation and emerging themes.

The Board considered a report and received a presentation which provided an economic evidence base to underpin a Growth Strategy for the City of Lincoln. A summary of the data analysis was noted as follows:

·         the most profound growth in the Principal Urban Area for Lincoln had been in North Hykeham over the last decade;

·         health was the dominant sector in the Principal Urban Area, with retail and restaurants or hospitality being key growth sectors;

·         manufacture of turbines remained a highly distinctive sector, with 35 times as many people employed in this sector in Lincoln than the national average;

·         health and high education were the key drivers of economic growth;

·         the digital sector was an opportunity area for the city economy, approaching a third of all the jobs and half the turnover associated with digital businesses in Greater Lincolnshire being in Lincoln and Lincoln having almost as many digital businesses as Norwich;

·         there had been a noticeable decrease in Gross Value Added in relation to public administration and defence;

·         forecasts to 2039 from two sources were consistent and suggested modest growth focussed principally in public services and health;

·         Lincoln had a lower skills base than the national average;

·         there had been a decline in professional occupations but an increase in other technical professions. Overall, however, elementary occupations remained the most dominant aspect of the local job scene;

·         wages had increased more slowly than the national average and lost pace with adjoining areas at both workplace and residential level. The growth between 2010 and 2019 had been 4% in Lincoln compared to 17% at the England level.

It was reported that these findings were relative to the ten comparator cities identified for benchmarking purposes, noted as Canterbury, Cambridge, Carlisle, Exeter, Gloucester, Ipswich, Mansfield, Oxford, St Albans and Worcester. The analysis of data highlighted the following:

·         Lincoln had a very stable economy in respect of business and innovation, with a modest turnover of businesses, a low stock of businesses and low Gross Value Added per worker;

·         Lincoln had a relatively small pipeline of 18-24 year old workers and had a high proportion of over 65’s, together with a modest proportion of the population having been born overseas;

·         with regard to housing, Lincoln had a big rented sector and good levels of affordability in terms of the ratio of house prices to income;

·         Lincoln had a very low proportion of Knowledge Intensive Businesses from the perspective of the city’s industrial structure and was at the upper end of the cohort in terms of manufacturing. Lincoln had a relatively high dependency on public sector employment;

·         Lincoln had high levels of economic inactivity regarding jobs and employment, with a modest number of private sector jobs and exceptional levels of benefit claimants;

·         Lincoln was a small service centre for its functionality, in relative terms, and had a higher stock of jobs than its nearest competitors in size and a slightly better level of Gross Value Added achievement;

·         Lincoln had low wages and low skills compared to the other cities in the cohort;

·         Lincoln had a limited public transport system in terms of current commuter use and, notwithstanding this, a modest carbon footprint.

Noting that this statistical analysis identified a significant number of challenges facing the city, those involved in collating the information and undertaking this piece of work were positive about its future. Examples of key opportunities were noted as follows:

·         the growth of Waddington, particularly the growth of Istar NATO headquarters located there which was attracting military contractors to Lincoln including to Teal Park and the Boole Technology Centre at Lincoln Science and Innovation Park;

·         the growth of the University of Lincoln, including the opening of a number of new schools in STEM subjects including Chemistry, Engineering, Geography and Pharmacy together with the new Medical School;

·         Lincolnshire Institute of Technology and the significant investment planned in Lincoln College to enable it to create a step change in its technical training offer, alongside the enhancement of the outreach facilities of the University Technical College which provided scope to increase the scale and range of technical opportunities in the city;

·         the opening of the Mosaic Digital Hub which would provide a focal point for the digital sector and help build the digital community in the city;

·         investment in the High Street and Transport Hub, including the regeneration of the Cornhill area and longer term plans for the redevelopment of the south High Street area which was likely to lead to a concentration of the retail core and increase the number of trains to London. This would all provide significant optimism for future growth in the functional core of the city;

·         the imminent completion of the Eastern Bypass, which would open up significant land for employment uses and help to remove the constraints to growth in a significant quarter of the city;

·         Lincoln’s world class tourism offer, taking into account the completion of the Heritage Lottery Fund investment in the Cathedral, complemented by the recent Bomber Command museum which provided a very potent mix of tourism opportunities connected with the city.

Jacqui Bunce highlighted that St Albans, for example, was a community city for London and had the highest number of consultants for health living there but not necessarily working in the area. It was therefore difficult to provide direct comparisons between that specific city and Lincoln.

Ursula Lidbetter suggested that the Board may wish to review further information regarding what this meant for Lincoln as averaging information out, such as wages for example, could sometimes hide other information.

It was noted that the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, undertaken at district level, had informed the data collated as part of the economic evidence base. This information could have been used to establish the average wages based on where people lived or worked, but this evidence base had concentrated on where people worked.

Ursula Lidbetter sought further information to establish what proportion of people were earning a particular wage rather than considering wages as an average. This would highlight specifically how many people were on a low income and how many were on a high income, as well as confirm the upper level of what people in the city earnt.

It was agreed that further analysis of this particular level of information would be undertaken.

Gary Headland asked for clarification as to the relationship between the Lincoln Town Deal Board and the Lincoln Town Deal Delivery Group, asking whether this evidence base had been considered by the Delivery Group.

It was reported that the evidence base had been considered by the Lincoln Town Deal Delivery Group.

Mary Stuart accepted the point made about averages but agreed that use of averages in this context provided helpful high-level benchmarking in terms of how Lincoln compared to other areas of a similar size and demographic. She also agreed with the point made regarding St Albans, highlighting that the same could apply to the inclusion of Cambridge and Oxford as comparative cities. Their inclusion was based upon their size and character being similar to that of Lincoln and it was highlighted that Lincoln should have the aspiration and ambition to compete with these cities.

Councillor Ric Metcalfe reflected on whether Lincoln’s economy was still recovering from the industrial decline of the 70’s and 80’s, particularly in respect of manufacturing. He felt that Lincoln needed to build on its strengths, but the reality was that there was a relationship between under achievement, low wages and high levels of health inequality across the city. These disadvantages were central to the City Council’s priorities in seeking to address them, as well as ensure that economic growth in Lincoln was as equal as possible.

Edward Strange made the point that Lincolnshire was the second largest county, but the second poorest county in England, being a large rural county with a relatively low population. He saw the Lincoln Town Deal as a wonderful opportunity for the city of Lincoln.

Mary Stuart felt that it was important not to focus on the negative aspects of the evidence base but turn them into something that could make a huge difference to the city. One of the problems was that Lincoln had not found a new vision for itself, economically, following its industrial decline whereas many other places had. The Town Deal provided the perfect opportunity to make a difference, find Lincoln’s new economic vision and take the city to the next level. With regard to the evidence base, Mary Stuart was of the opinion that Government would expect to see such a data analysis as part of the Board’s demonstration that it would be allocating and spending money appropriately. It was imperative that the Board ensured the Town Deal had a positive impact on the city.

Gary Headland said that the evidence base provided the Board with a really good position statement as to what it knew about Lincoln. He asked whether this would include any assumptions as to what the city may look like from an economic perspective over the next two or three years, for example.

Kate Ellis reported that the evidence base was high-level but identified lots of investment taking place in the city, together with lots of industrial initiatives. There were opportunities, therefore, to transform Lincoln’s economy and enable it to compete economically with its statistical neighbours. It was noted that a later item at this meeting would set out how things would be joined up to provide a clear, bold and ambitious strategy for the Lincoln Town Deal.

It was RESOLVED that the economic evidence base to underpin a Growth Strategy for the City of Lincoln be noted.